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Market Analysis

Throughout the year, we produce a wide array of reports that provide analysis and forecasts about commodity markets in France and in the European Union (EU). These reports help identify trends and opportunities in the EU market.

Our latest reports are available below. 

All our past reports are available on the global website of the Foreign Agricultural Service.

If you want to be informed when a new report is published, you can subscribe to our newsletters.

 

Topics:

 

FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

 

EU Tree Nuts Annual Report, 9/15/2016

The United States is the most important supplier of nuts to the European Union. In the last decade, tree nut shipments from the United States to the EU-28 have doubled, reaching a record $2.98 billion in 2015, of which $1.8 billion were almonds. The positive reputation of nuts and the increased consumer awareness of the health benefits of nuts have been extremely beneficial to boost sales.

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EU Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual Report, 10/27/2016

EU-28 commercial apple production in MY 2016/17 is estimated at 11.3 MMT, a 2 percent decrease compared to the previous year, as weather related dramatic losses in Central-East EU are not compensated by record production in Poland. EU commercial pear production is estimated at almost 2.4 MMT, down by 8 percent while EU-28 table grape production is forecast to slightly decline by 3.5 percent and reach approximately 1.7 MMT. In response to the Russian import ban for European fruit and vegetables, some member states were able to increase their exports to other destinations. In addition, the EU Commission extended the temporary exceptional support measures until July 2017. 

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EU Stone Fruit Annual Report, 8/19/2016 

EU-28 production of peaches and nectarines in MY 2016/17 is estimated at almost 3.7 million MT, 6 percent lower compared to the previous harvest due to unfavorable weather conditions with considerable decreases in the main European producers, Spain and Italy, while Greek production shows an increase. Total cherry production in MY 2016/17 is projected at 623,664 MT, or almost 11 percent decrease compared with last season, where the growth in Poland and Spain could not compensate for the decline that may occur in Italy and Greece. In MY 2015/16, despite the Russian ban, EU-28 exports reoriented mainly to North Africa, Asia, Belarus and Moldova. During MY 2015/16 volumes of cherries imported from the United States decreased 63 percent. U.S. cherries exports may also be hit by French pesticide ban. 

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EU Citrus Annual Report, 12/7/2016 

MY 2016/17 EU-28 citrus production is projected to reach 11MMT, meaning a growth of 3.3 percent when compared to MY 2015/16 mainly due to a 20 percent higher citrus production expected in Spain with 7.1 MMT, due to favorable weather conditions which more than make up for the 27 percent lower citrus production estimated in Italy . EU-28 orange production is forecast at 6 MMT, meaning 3 percent lower than MY 2015/16, because of lower Italian production. MY 2016/17 EU-28 orange juice production is forecast at 101,476 MT, an increase of 1.7 percent compared to the previous year mainly due to the rise of oranges for processing expected in Spain. MY 2016/17 EU-28 tangerine production is forecast to increase from the previous year by 8 percent reaching 3.3 MMT due to a 24 percent growth forecast in Spain despite the decline in Italy. MY 2016/17 EU-28 lemon and grapefruit productions are forecast to rise by 22 and 11.6 percent respectively, thanks to the increased volumes expected mainly in all EU-28 citrus producers. To compensate for the loss of the Russian market, the EU-28, led by Spanish producers, has reoriented their citrus exports to new markets such as Brazil, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia or China.

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EU Potatoes and Potato Products Annual Report, 11/10/2016

Production of ware potatoes is expected to be slightly lower than last year; imports from within the EU will ensure full use of the processing capacity in Belgium and the Netherlands. EU exports of frozen potato products are expected to be similar to last year despite the slight rise in price. The future for the European frozen potato product industry looks bright due to growing demand for these products in the Middle East, Russia, Latin America and South East Asia. 

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CROPS

 

EU Oilseed Market Update, 8/3/2016 

This report provides EU-28 production, supply, and demand forecasts for major EU oilseeds, protein meals and related products.

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EU Crop Update, 10/11/2016 

The total MY2016/17 EU-28 grain crop is revised down 3 MMT from the previous forecast to 296.7 MMT. The largest proportion of this reduction is due to diminished prospects for the corn crop in France, Germany and Romania albeit somewhat offset by an improved outlook in Hungary. Overall, it is the forecast 15.5 MMT year-on-year decline in wheat production which is of most significance for the total EU28 grain crop, which if confirmed is down nearly 16 MMT on MY2015/16 and over 31 MMT on MY2014/15. With wheat quality also in question, the focus is now turning to overall grain usage, especially for feed, within the EU-28 and the likely implications for trade. 

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BIOENERGY AND BIOTECHNOLOGY

 

EU Biofuels Annual Report, 6/29/2016

In 2015, the European Commission (EC) officially introduced a seven percent cap on food based biofuels thus limiting future production of these first generation or conventional biofuels and ensuring that only the most efficient plants will continue operating. Meanwhile, incentives to encourage second generation or advanced biofuels, such as the production of hydrogenated vegetable oils (HVO) have been very successful. The commercialization of cellulosic ethanol is lagging behind compared to the development of HVO. Imports of biomass, in particular wood pellets for heating and power, are surging. 

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EU Biofuel Mandates in the EU by Member State, 6/22/2016

This report provides an overview on the biofuel use mandates in the various EU-28 member states. It supplements the EU-28 Biofuel Annual Report. 

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EU Agricultural Biotechnology Annual Report, 12/6/2016

In the European Union (EU), consumers, governments, industry, non-governmental organizations, and the media remain conflicted about the use of agricultural biotechnology. Acceptance varies widely across countries. The EU’s complex policy framework developed under pressure from antibiotech activists has limited research, development, and production of biotech crops. EU institutions are still working on the way innovative biotechnologies (also called new breeding techniques) should be regulated. A few Member States of the EU are active on this subject but in most countries, the debate has not emerged yet. The United Kingdom’s exit from the EU is unlikely to affect EU policies or trade in the short term. 

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France Agricultural Biotechnology Annual Report, 10/19/2016

Although public opinion in France is generally opposed to products derived from biotechnology, the livestock industry is dependent upon imported genetically engineered (GE) products to meet its feed needs. France has no commercial production or field trials of GE crops, but some laboratory research is being conducted in the country. The French administration has no official position yet on the way innovative biotechnologies should be regulated but they are active on this subject. The seed industry and the main farm organizations have developed a detailed position in favor of innovative biotechnologies, while anti-biotech groups have conducted a few actions against them. Public awareness is low. As for animal biotechnology, it is mainly used for medical research purposes.

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EU Dairy and Products Annual Report, 10/14/2016

It is expected that in 2016 milk deliveries in the European Union will increase by 1.1 percent and stabilize in 2017. In 2016 increased milk production is expected to be mainly processed into cheese and butter which remain in demand on the world market and non-fat dried milk (NFDM) used by the EU in the market intervention programs. The European Commission (EC) continued intervention on the dairy market in 2016 through subsidizing public stocks of NFDM, and private storage of NFDM, butter and cheese. In addition the EC allocated U.S. $168 million for voluntary reduction of milk production and U.S. $392 million as aid envelopes to member states for use in programs supporting dairy industry. 

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EU Poultry Annual Report, 9/9/2016

The EU-28 broiler sector is expected to grow in 2016 and 2017, benefiting from slowly increasing demand, since it has been less affected than other meats by the economic downturn in Europe. Brazil and Thailand will remain the largest suppliers of broiler meat to the EU-28, with Ukraine becoming the third largest supplier after being granted a TRQ for broiler meat. EU-28 broiler meat exports are expected to increase in 2016 and 2017, despite the continuing Russian embargo, driven by booming exports of low-priced cuts, bone-in cuts, and mechanically deboned meat (MDM) to Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia.

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EU Livestock and Products Annual Report, 9/6/2016

The liberalization of the dairy market led to a strong increase of the slaughter of dairy cows. While the dairy cow herd is shrinking, the beef cow herd is slightly growing. The elevated beef supply is anticipated to be absorbed by the domestic market. EU pork prices recovered from record lows to average levels solely due to the hike in Chinese demand for pork. Improved profitability is expected to sustain EU pork supplies through 2017. Given the saturated domestic market, and the strong dependence on the Chinese market, EU producers are active in opening new markets.

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OTHER

 

EU Sugar Semi-Annual Report, 9/30/2016

The EU-28 sugar production for food purposes for MY 2016/17 is now forecasted at 16.2 million MT in raw sugar equivalent (RSE), with another 1.8 million MT produced for industrial purposes. The estimate for the MY 2015/16 production under the EU sugar regime is revised up to 14.3 million MT RSE, with some 2 million MT produced over quota for industrial use. EU-28 quota production for MY 2014/15 was 18.45 million MT in RSE and another 2.55 million MT for industrial purposes. EU sugar consumption for food remains at 18.8 million MT RSE as previously estimated. Sugar imports for MY 2015/2016 are decreased to 3 million MT because of lower exports than expected from ACP/EBA countries while imports for MY 2016/17 are now forecast at 3.25 million MT. Sugar exports remain limited to 1.5 million MT by the EU’s WTO sugar export ceiling. EU sugar stocks for MY 2014/15 jumped to 4.1 million MT, decreasing to 1.1 million MT in MY 2015/16 and further down to 0.3 million MT in MY 2016/17.

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EU Wine Policy Report, 12/13/2016

The EU remains the world's largest wine producer despite lower production levels in 2016 compared to 2015. U.S. exporters should be aware that specific wine labeling rules set out in the EU's Single Common Market Organization regulation 1308/2013 are supplemented by the EU's general labeling rules set out in the "Food Information to Consumers" regulation 1169/2011. This report provides an overview of policy developments and EU legislation on wine. 

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